The day that horse racing fans everywhere have been waiting for is finally here, as the 139th running of the Kentucky Derby will take place at Churchill Downs. The winner will immortalize himself in the history of the sport, but it is extremely difficult to predict who will cross the finish line first.
There is a ton of talent throughout the field in the form of horses, jockeys and trainers. Revolutionary has been installed as the favorite to this point, but at least half of the field has a realistic shot at winning. The lines are constantly changing, so it's really difficult to get a grasp on the horses that the public likes ahead of the race.
Whatever the case, here is the full starting order, complete with current betting odds, although those are sure to change throughout the day. Also, check out my projected trifecta following the post positions and odds.
Although Goldencents has been passed as the betting favorite by Revolutionary, he clearly has all of the tools necessary to win. Not only is he a great horse who has won three out of his past four races, but he also has a lot of good karma working in his favor.
He will be ridden by Kevin Krigger, who could become the first African-American jockey to win the Kentucky Derby since Jimmy Winkfield in 1902. Goldencents is also trained by Doug O'Neill, who led I'll Have Another to a Kentucky Derby win last year. In addition to that, Goldencents is starting in the advantageous No. 8 position. If all of that isn't enough, legendary interviewer Larry King likes him as well.
Ownership may not matter once a horse gets on the track, but Louisville head basketball coach Rick Pitino owns five percent of Goldencents. Pitino is coming off of a national championship win, so perhaps his hot streak will continue. No horse in the field has as many great storylines surrounding it as Goldencents, and that makes him a very serious contender.
While the overall quality of the horses in this race will obviously have a major impact on the finish, weather could very well play a role, too. It figures to be rainy all day at Churchill Downs, which is sure to make for a sloppy racing surface. Some horses are better than others in the mud, and Palace Malice could be the best in that regard.
It is unclear how horses will perform on a sloppy track until they actually get out there, but Palace Malice has history on his side. His father is the great Curlin, who was masterful when the conditions were difficult. A video of Curlin winning the 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic at Monmouth Park was posted on Palace Malice's official Twitter account today. The track was very muddy that day, and it could be the same at Churchill Downs today.
Palace Malice also has a great starting position at No. 10 and will be led by the dream combo of jockey Mike Smith and trainer Todd Pletcher. Rain is a great equalizer in horse racing, and even though Palace Malice is a longer shot at the moment, the conditions may work to his advantage.
In staying with the sloppy condition theme, Itsmyluckyday is better equipped to race in mud than any horse in the field. According to Larry Stumes of the San Francisco Chronicle (subscription required), Itsmyluckyday is one of the few horses in the field who has run on a sloppy surface in the past. That should give him a big advantage over some of the other horses, as experience in that situation is paramount.
Itsmyluckyday also has a solid starting position at No. 12, and bettors have been throwing money in his direction since Wednesday. It's entirely possible that Itsmyluckyday will be among the favorites by the time that the race starts, and that shouldn't deter you from putting him in your trifecta. Wisconsin State Journal sports columnist Tom Oates is one of many media members who are heralding Itsmyluckyday ahead of the Run for the Roses.
Itsmyluckyday has won three of his past four races and finished second to Orb in the prestigious Florida Derby. Thanks to that and his history in the mud, there is a lot to like about him. While Goldencents appears to have better peripherals and is a safer bet to win the race, Itsmyluckyday figures to be in the mix near the end.
Via: - Hungarian NB I
No comments:
Post a Comment